Flapjacks Power Rankings

So, just for kicks, I will be periodically ranking the teams in my league. I'm sure this holds no interest for anyone but the managers in my league, so feel free to move along to the next post.

3/31/08 Flapjacks Power Rankings

1. The Balls
This team's #1 ranking is dependent on how long Albert Pujols can stay in the lineup. The Balls have arguably the best pitching staff in our league, led by Erik Bedard and Jake Peavy. They need healthy seasons from both Hank Blalock and Milton Bradley, especially Pujols opts for surgery.

2. The Macafeys
They probably have the best offense in the league, led by David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, and B.J. Upton. They'll get even better if Alex Gordon can take the next step forward. Their pitching could use some help, but a healthy Rich Harden will go a long way to strengthening their staff.

3. The Dinos
Dinos have a strong offense, but they need both Lastings Milledge and Joey Votto to take the next step, a healthy J.D. Drew, and a bounce-back year from Richie Sexson. Injury questions on their pitching staff keeps them from ranking higher. John Smoltz starting on the DL hurt their ranking this week.

4. The Screaming Lemurs
The Lemurs have a very balanced offense, with quite a few guys who run and hit for power. If Billy Butler can continue his strong spring training start, the Lemurs could move up a spot. Their rotation is strong, but they appear to be punting saves, and their pitchers at the back of the rotation (Kevin Millwood, Wandy Rodriguez, Jake Westbrook) are not very good.

5. The Tossers
The Tossers have a strong offense with lots of power, led Alex Rodriguez, Travis Hafner, Nick Swisher, and Brad Hawpe. They do need another ace to help Chris Young anchor their pitching staff, as it's a steep drop from Young to the rest of their pitchers.

6. Val Kilmer's Asshole
They could have the best pitching staff if Scott Kazmir and B.J. Ryan can come back strong from injury and if A.J. Burnett can stay healthy. Until then, this roster is filled with injured players such as Scott Rolen, Jeremy Hermida, and Jerry Owens. They don't have enough healthy batters to fill all of their active roster spots.

7. Adrian's Revenge
My team has a good offense, but I probably have the worst pitching rotation. Hopefully Brad Lidge will stay healthy. I need Ian Snell, Rich Hill, and Matt Garza to take the next step forward to improve my staff. My offense could get a boost if Chris B. Young and Hunter Pence improve this year.

8. Self Indulgence
They will have a good offense, especially if Matt Kemp is as good as advertised. They need Jeff Kent and Ken Griffey Jr. to stay healthy, and they need to add depth to their pitching staff. They have Johan Santana, but not that much after him.

9. Summer Fox
Summer Fox could move up a couple of spot if he improves his roster, which has a few open spots due to players being sent down to the minors. Losing John Lackey hurts. He needs a bounce-back season from Jason Bay, and improvements from Stephen Drew and Yunel Escobar.

10. Butt Admirals
The Admirals could have a dominant pitching staff if Josh Beckett can stay healthy. The offense will struggle because he's depending on guys like Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Garko, Nate McClouth, and Kosuke Fukudome to make the leap to the next level.

11. Dissect Yourself
They have a good offense, but their pitching staff is hurting. They need Yovani Gallardo to be healthy, and they need another ace. Clay Buchholz could become that ace, but it might not happen this year.

12. Naterade
Naterade has the worst offense in the league, and they could have the worst pitching if Francisco Liriano doesn't come back in top form. His offense has the most upside of any team in the league, so he could move up the rankings fast if his team as a hot start.

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Andre Ethier wins the Dodgers' starting LF job

Andre Ethier wins the LF job over incumbent Juan Pierre, as reported by MLB.com.

This is good news, as Ethier is a much better all-around player than Pierre, both offensively and defensively.  Pierre does provide speed on the base paths, but he is a liability in the field and he has no power.  Hopefully the Dodgers trade him for a 3B, because Pierre doesn't offer much as a bench option and he's bound to complain about his new role.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

Last week, two trades were made in my Yahoo H2H league.  Let's take a look at them.

1. Dissect Yourself (Micah) trades Tom Gorzelanny and Joe Blanton to Val Kilmer's Asshole (Mark) for C.J. Wilson.

Micah gets C.J. Wilson, who saved 12 games in 2007 for the Rangers and has been named the team's closer to start the season.  Wilson pitched well this spring, throwing three scoreless innings before giving up four runs in his last two appearances before the start of the regular season. Wilson did have to pitch with some tightness in his forearm, but it doesn't appear that it will affect him much this year.  He did fairly well last year taking over as the team's closer in August, with seven saves and three ER in 12.1 innings that month.  September was a little rougher as he went 4 for 5 in save opportunities and gave up seven ER in 8.1 innings.  Wilson seems to have a lock on the role for now, but Texas does have a couple of other closer options in their bullpen.  Wilson does have value for the team as a left-handed reliever, so if he can't close out games early on, they may be quick to restructure their bullpen and give someone else a shot.

Joe Blanton and Tom Gorzelanny both are solid 4th-pitchers on a fantasy squad.  Blanton offers decent WHIP and ERA, though his 5.24 career K/9 is below average.  He might struggle for wins with the rebuilding A's, but he plays in a pitcher-friendly park and he's durable, averaging 208 innings over the past three seasons.  I believe that Blanton will improve on his 3.95 ERA from last year, and that he'll post an ERA closer to his 2005 mark of 3.53.  Blanton's control has improved since his major league debut; his walks issued are trending downward and his K/BB is trending upward.  He'll be a top-40 pitcher this year.

Gorzelanny hasn't spent as much time in the majors as Blanton, but his upside is greater and if he breaks out this year, he could be a top-30 pitcher.  Gorzelanny had a 3.05 ERA in the first three months on 2007, before struggling to a 4.92 ERA in the second half.  Gorzelanny was probably not prepared to pitch 200-plus innings, and he may be an injury risk due to being overworked.  Like Blanton, Gorzelanny won't give you many wins or strikeouts, but his low WHIP and ERA could be a great benefit to any team if he can keep from being worn out or overworked.

I think Micah probably overpaid to get Wilson.  Wilson should provide saves this year, but it's not likely that he'll be the Rangers' closer for the entire season.  Micah probably should have tried to get more for Blanton and Gorzelanny, or he should have tried to keep from parting with both.  Right now, his starting pitching staff consists of Jon Lester, C.C. Sabathia, Brad Penny, Clay Buchholz, and Yovani Gallardo.  Micah did need to get saves, but I think giving up both those pitchers weakens his staff, at least until Gallardo is back.

Mark did well in getting a lot of value back for Wilson; getting both Blanton and Gorzelanny allows him to drop Doug Davis and it adds depth to a pitching staff that his some question marks due to injury risks.   Adding these two gives Mark a total of eight starting pitchers, with Scott Kazmir on the DL.  Both Kazmir and A.J. Burnett are likely to struggle with injury throughout the year, but with our weekly nine-start limit, I'm not certain that Mark will want that many starters on his roster.  His pitching depth is a strength, but he also has very little offensive depth at the moment with only twelve healthy hitters for thirteen active roster spots. Mark might have been better served in getting a batter instead of two pitchers.  I don't think that Gorzelanny will break out this year, but both he and Blanton should have decent seasons.  

2. Dinos (Jonathan) trades Justin Morneau, Jonathan Broxton and Dontrelle Willis to Naterade (Nate) for Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Joey Votto, Jack Cust.  

Our first blockbuster trade of the year.  Dinos get two top-fifteen pitchers, a touted first-base prospect, and a guy with 35 HR power who should break the season strikeout record if he's given enough at bats.  Oswalt has been one of the better pitchers of the decade, with a career 3.07 ERA and 112 wins in seven years.  His strikeout numbers have dropped since he struck out 206 in 2004, and his K/9 rate last year was a career-low at 6.54.  It's hard to say whether Oswalt will have post elite K-rates again, and his low strikeout totals are the only thing that can keep him from being a top-10 pitcher, but he should continue to have premium ERA and WHIP numbers.

Smoltz will start the season on the DL, but he should be back on April 6 to pitch against the Mets.  I have may doubts about how easily he'll be able to ignore all the aches and pains throughout the season, but you can't ignore the stats he puts up when he's healthy.  Smoltz had an incredible year for a 40-year old in 2007, with his best K/9 rate since 2004.  Even if his skills do diminish because of age this year, he should still be in the top-20 among starting pitchers.

Joey Votto has shown his talent in the minors, with a career minor-league OPS of .861 in six seasons.  He's shown both power and speed, with 44 HR and 40 SB in two seasons between AA and AAA.  Votto has shown lots of patience at the plate, and it's not hard to see him one day hit .300/30/15.  The only problem standing in his way this season is the Reds' incumbent first baseman, Scott Hatteberg.  Votto didn't hit that well this spring, while Hatteberg did, and it looks Hatteberg will be the starter at 1B while Votto will pick up a few at bats each week.  Votto could be great, but it might not be this year. 

Jack Cust can hit for power, but by the look of his strikeout numbers from last year, it appears to be the only thing he tries to do.  Cust should hit for power and, despite his propensity for striking out, he should get a full-season's worth of at bats on an Oakland squad devoid of much experience.  Cust is useful if you have guys that can hit for high-average to offset his low BA.

Justin Morneau's numbers regressed last year after his MVP-season in 2006.  Both his power numbers and his BA took a hit, mostly due to an awful finish in August and September in which he batted .221 with just three home runs.  I think Morneau should hit 30 HR for the third year in a row, but I don't think he'll hit .300.  Morneau sits just outside of the elite first basemen circle, but he's still young enough to make the leap to the next level.  

Jonathan Broxton is young, K's over ten batters per nine innings, and lowered his walks last year from 2006 despite pitching more innings.  Broxton could be a dominant closer once Takashi Saito can't play any more, but Broxton did not pitch that well last year in the few save situations that Saito was not available for.  Broxton has a lot of value in our league because his innings will not count against our start limit, and he racks up the strikeouts.  He should be one of the top middle relievers in the majors this year.

Dontrelle Willis had a bright career as a young starter, but his career dimmed a bit when he posted a 5.17 ERA in 2007.  Willis will get a fresh start pitching in Detroit on a team that is sure to contend, so an improvement might be expected purely because of the change of scenery. Willis has not pitched that well this spring, and his control continues to be a problem.  A better offense won't help him if he can't get through the tougher AL offenses without walking too many.  Willis should bounce back this season, but he still won't be a top-50 pitcher.  

I think the trade is fair for both sides, but I'm not certain that it helps Jonathan's team.  He needed to improve his pitching because he already had Mark Prior, Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar and Orlando Hernandez on the DL, and he needed some solid pitching depth in case Ben Sheets gets hurt and Oliver Perez reverts to his pre-2007 form.  But I think he will miss Morneau's production, especially if Votto can't get more than 300 at bats this year.  Jonathan's team is now lacking in batters who hit for a high average, and I think he could have gotten someone better in the trade than Cust, who Jonathan has said might not be on his team for that long.

Nate does well in getting the best player in the deal.  With Morneau, he has a young power hitter who he can build around.  Nate greatly strengthens his offense, which was filled with young players such as Delmon Young, Justin Upton, and Adam Jones.  Nate had to subtract from his pitching staff, but he might be fine with the pitchers he has if Francisco Liriano can come back strong from his tune-up in the minors, and if Felix Hernandez can take the next step forward as an ace.  It might be wise to wait a week or two and then try and offer Nate a starting pitcher, especially if Chad Billingsley struggles to start the year.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

Here's another look at some of the recent transactions in my Yahoo keeper league.

1.  Macafeys (Tim) drop Tim Wakefield and pick up Jason Varitek, then drops Varitek and picks up Asdrubal Cabrera.

I assume that this was done to take advantage of the two games that Boston plays this week, as Tim already has a decent, if raw option at catcher in Geovany Soto.

I don't know how much this will affect Wakefield's season, but Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher, was waived by the Red Sox.  Boston's catchers had problems catching Wakefield's knuckle ball last year, enough so that Boston was forced to trade for Mirabelli back from the Padres.  Wakefield has always managed to win games, but I think it's more likely that he continues to regress this year due to age.

Cabrera is a young second baseman with some upside upside.  He hit .310 in AA last year with an .837 OPS, then hit .283 in the majors after being called up in August.  He'll likely need another year or two before developing into a top ten 2B, but he does give Tim a decent option at MI in case Bobby Crosby is injured. 

2. The Balls (Bru) drop Carlos Quentin for Edison Volquez.

I like Volquez, but I'm not certain that Bru needed another pitcher, having already rostered six on his squad.  Maybe he wasn't completely confident in the abilities of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez to pitch a full season.  

Quentin has talent and should get his share of at bats in the White Sox's outfield, but I don't think he's ready to be a solid contributor this year.  

This is a good pickup for the fact that Volquez has upside and Quentin was expendable, but I think Bru needs to improve his offense, especially since Cameron Maybin was just sent down.

3.  Tossers (Troost) picks up Jason Bartlett.

Since Kaz Matsui will miss the first couple weeks of the season with anal fissures, Troost needed to pickup a MI.  Bartlett stole 23 bases last year with the Twins, and with his move to the Rays, a team with a more aggressive base path philosophy, Bartlett should better those numbers.  The Rays will get twelve games against the Yankees and the Orioles in the first two weeks of the season, two teams with catchers that do not do a good job of limiting base stealers. Bartlett should have a few SB in during those series.

4.  Naterade (Nate) drops Josh Fields and picks up Andre Ethier.

Fields has been demoted to the minors, but he'll be back up this year, and he could provide great value as a keeper.  Fields has great power, but a poor batting average; if he can run like he did in AAA in 2006 when he stole 26 bases, he'll be a poor man's Ryan Braun.

Ethier has been one of the Dodgers' best players this spring, hitting .340 with 5 HR in 50 AB's. He could improve on his HR totals if he can beat out Juan Pierre for playing time in left field. Ethier could be a very good 5th outfielder, and he should provide Nate a decent option if Justin Upton or Adam Jones struggles to begin the year.  I like Ethier and I think he'll improve on his numbers from the last two seasons.

The only problem is that Nate is now severely lacking in corner infielders, with only Kevin Youkilis guaranteed playing time.  Time to hit the waiver wire, or trade one of your outfielders.

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What People Are Saying

- Eric Hz at Fake Teams has six sleepers for deeper AL/NL only leagues.

Two interesting names on the list are RP Dennis Safarte and OF Fred Lewis who could end up having value in mixed leagues if they are given enough playing time.

- Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer has updates on John Smoltz, Freddy Sanchez, and Brad Lidge.

Since I'm counting on Lidge to provide 30 saves this year, I'm hoping that his stay on the DL keeps him fresh and healthy and doesn't serve as a precursor for more stays to come.  

I like Smoltz and had him last year, but I don't know how long he can continue to be a top ten or fifteen pitcher.  There's no way that each injury doesn't continue to nag him throughout the year.

- Bob Taylor of Fantasy Hurler bemoans the Jarrod Saltalamacchia demotion, which results in him having to pick up "Gerald Fucking Laird".

I like Saltalamacchia and think he'll have a great career, but it doesn't seem that he's ready to be a major league catcher.  It may be better to move him to first base to get his bat in the lineup, but he still struck out 75 times in just 308 at bats in his first season in the major leagues.  He probably needs a bit more time in AAA, but I expect he'll be back up in Texas before the season is over.

As for Laird, I'm glad I don't have to rush to the waiver wire to pick him up, but it was only a year ago that Laird was the player being mentioned as a sleeper at catcher after hitting .296 with seven home runs in 243 at bats in 2006.  Laird has some good pop, so he's not a bad choice, especially if you are in a league that requires two catchers.

- Also over at Fantasy Hurler, Mike Bock takes issue with some of the moves that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has made in the past couple of years.

I do agree that we overpaid for Juan Pierre, who might be overtaken by Andre Ethier as the starting leftfielder, and Jason Schmidt, but I have to disagree with his other opinions.

Colletti signed Rafael Furcal for three years/$39 million, which is a lot of money, but Furcal was one of the Dodgers best players in his first season with the team, hitting .300/15/63/37. It's likely that Furcal could have repeated those numbers in 2007, but a spring training collision with teammate Jason Repko left him with an ankle sprain that hindered him throughout the year.  Now that he's healthy, Furcal should be one of the top ten shortstops in the league.

Nomar Garciaparra has little to no value now, but he was the Comeback Player of the Year in his first year with the Dodgers, hitting .303/20/93 in 2006.  Garciaparra is just taking up space now that James Loney is ready to take over at first, but he was one of the team's better offensive players in 2006.

I liked that the Dodgers were able to get Luis Gonzalez for 2007; he was a decent insurance policy in case Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier faltered.  Gonzalez's 15 HR were actually tied for third on the power deficient team.  It was just a one-year deal, so Gonzalez allowed the Dodgers to bring their young outfielders along slowly without blocking them long term.  

Derek Lowe has been the Dodger's most consistent starting pitcher over the last three years; he's pitched nearly 200 innings every year that he's been on the team, and he's averaged 13 wins with an ERA between 3.61 and 3.88.  I don't see how you can go wrong with having a rotation stalwart like that on our team.

- Eric Stashin at Roto Professor notes that Homer Bailey has been sent down, but he should be back up soon.

Edinson Volquez, acquired from the Rangers for Josh Hamilton, has beaten Bailey out for a rotation spot by striking out 26 batters in 20 innings this spring training with a 2.70 ERA. Volquez is starting to pique everyone's interest and he's definitely someone to stash away if you can.  

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Eugenio Velez: Cheap Source for Steals

For those speculating on steals, Giants utility player Eugenio Velez could be someone to watch.

Splitting time between Single-A, AA, and AAA, Velez stole 118 bases over the past two seasons. With 3b Kevin Frandsen likely out for the season, Velez should have a chance to find playing time all over the infield. Velez stole nine bases this spring, and could be a 30-SB sleeper if he can continue to get on base, giving him great value if he gains third base eligibility.

Only five or six third basemen are likely to come close to 20 steals, and Velez should get at least that if he can get a full season worth of at bats.

For those looking to replace injured speedsters such as Kaz Matsui or Jerry Owens, Velez might be worth taking a flier on.

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Rich Harden looks strong in win.

Rich Harden pitched well in his first start of the season, receiving win in a 5-1 game over Boston.

Harden struck out nine and gave up three hits in six innings, the only run against him coming off a two-out home run by Manny Ramirez in the sixth inning.

The only problem Harden had was being inefficient with his pitches, only throwing 63% of his pitches for strikes. Harden walked three and needed 95 pitches to get through six innings.

This is good news for those taking a chance on Harden being able to stay healthy through the whole season. When healthy, Harden has the ability to be one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball. In 317.2 innings from 2004-2005, Harden had a 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 8.16 K/9 rate.


On another note, Oakland outfielder Emil Brown hit a home run in the same game against starter Jon Lester. Brown offers little value, but he might have some value against lefthanders for those in deeper leagues with daily transactions. Last year, Brown hit .317 against lefthanders. I almost picked up Brown for today's game because he was facing a lefty. I don't recommend picking him up unless you're desperate, but some value is there.

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Kelvim Escobar's Injury Setback

For those hoping that Kelvim Escobar would come back sooner than later, it looks like your prayers have gone unanswered.

Escobar was diagnosed with inflammation in his pitching shoulder back in September, and he has yet to pitch a game in spring training.

Escobar had recently begun doing some light throwing, but now it appears that he is suffering from "renewed discomfort" and his recovery date "will certainly be pushed back now, possibly into June."

This is not good news for Escobar owners, as Escobar is certain to deal with injury throughout the year, and at best will give his owners half a season. Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer now projects Escobar to finish with numbers around 13 starts, 80 innings pitched, six wins, and 65 K's.

To Jonathan, manager of the Dinos and Escobar owner, my condolences. Not to rub it in, but I suspected that your rotation of Escobar, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Carpenter, and Mark Prior would be risky at best. Time to hit the waiver wire.

*Update* LA Times reports that Escobar has shoulder tear, "an injury that could require season-ending surgery and, possibly, end his career."

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

For the other participants in my "Flapjacks" Yahoo keeper league, let's take a look at some of the recent waiver wire transactions over the weekend and see if we can assess their impact.


1. Adrian's Revenge (that's me) trades Xavier Nady to Dissect Yourself (Micah) for Austin Kearns.

This was a straight up value swap in that each team gave up an outfielder from their bench for another player that they valued more. Micah gets some more pop for his team, since Nady should hit 20-25 HR, though I think Micah's hoping for a breakout year of around 30 HR. Micah does have a need for more power as he only has a few solid HR sources (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday); most of his squad is filled up with with guys who hit for average (James Loney, Kelly Johnson, Daric Barton) and speedsters (Juan Pierre, Corey Patterson). Nady will hit for power, but he's never had 500 at bats in a season and there are quite a few options in the Pittsburgh outfield. I wanted to get a player with a bit more upside and job security, which is why I targeted Austin Kearns.

Austin Kearns has the talent to hit 25 or more HR in a season, but like Nady, he'd never played a full season until last year. Kearns power was trending upward a couple of years ago in Cincinnatti; he hit 18 HR in 387 at bats in 2005 and 16 HR in 325 at bats in 2006 before being traded midway through the season to Washington. Since coming to Washington, he's hit 24 HR in 799 at bats, his power being severely stunted by his home park. Last year he hit .228 with a .695 OPS at home, while on the road he hit .301 with .832 OPS. Washington moves into a more offensive-friendly park this year, and my hope is that Austin Kearns will have a season more along the lines of his 2007 road stats, maybe .280/25/90. It's not much of a gamble on my part as neither Kearns nor Nady would have started the season anywhere but on my bench. Kearns will be blocked by Carlos Lee, Chris B. Young, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, Raul Ibanez, and Rick Ankiel, but Kearns could break into that group with a good first month or two, especially if there's an injury. At the very least I can spot start him right away against lefties.

I think this trade will work out well for both teams. Neither of us gave up someone we wanted and we both got someone we valued.

2. Val Kilmer's Asshole (Mark) drops Homer Bailey and picks up Mark Ellis.

Mark (whose team was previously known as the Kiwis) had dropped Freddy Sanchez last week for Doug Davis, and needed to fill his empty MI spot. Ellis is a solid yet underappreciated MI who should provide some pop. He's one of the better hitters on the Oakland team, so he should have some good RBI opportunities. Mark could have gone with someone like Jason Bartlett for more speed, but his team is pretty balanced, and I think Ellis is a good choice.

I like Homer Bailey a lot, and he may still have a good year in 2008, but he's just one of a couple pitchers fighting for the fifth spot in the Reds rotation. Mark already had seven starting pitchers before dropping Bailey, so it makes sense to lose a pitcher, but I think I would have dropped Davis and kept Bailey. Davis has been declining as a pitcher the last couple of years, and I don't think he'll turn it around soon. Better to keep Bailey and hope he gets called up to the rotation in a month.

I think Mark did a good job to fill a hole on his team, but I think he needs to replace Doug Davis in his rotation.

3. Naterade (Nate) drops Franklin Morales and adds Wily Mo Pena and Travis Buck.

Nate dropped a talented rookie - which is surprising because most of his roster is made up of talented rookies - who has struggled this spring and is not assured of a roster spot.  Franklin Morales has one more spring training start to try and impress the Rockies, but it looks like he needs more time in AAA.  Nate has a decent pitching staff, though both Francisco Liriano and John Smoltz are recovering/hurting from injury, so Morales won't be much of a loss.  

Nate picks up Wily Mo Pena to stash on his DL and Oakland outfielder Travis Buck, who plays tomorrow in the first game of the season.  I have a feeling Nate grabbed Buck to take advantage of the two games that Oakland plays this week.  Nate can get a headstart on his opponent by gaining some early stats.  I'm willing to bet that Buck will be back on the waiver wire this weekend, which is where he should stay as he the only value he has is a starting job.

Pena will start the season on the DL with a torn oblique and should be back in May.  He has lots of power - he hit 26 HR in 336 at bats playing for Cincinatti in 2004 - and is just entering his prime, but he has problems hitting righties, batting .203 in 177 at bats last year.  The talented but troubled Elijah Dukes will man left field while Pena is out, and Pena may have to split time if Dukes produces in the first month.  No harm in keeping Pena in your DL spot as a speculation pickup.

4. Dissect Yourself (Micah) picks up Tony Pena.

Micah had a roster spot open and picked up Arizona reliever Tony Pena.  This is a good pickup for a few reasons.  Our league has a 9-start limit per week, so relievers gain a greater value because the innnings they do not count against the start limit.  Pena should be the first in line for saves if Brandon Lyon is unable to hold the closer position.  Pena has decent DOM ratios, but he needs to improve his command just a little.  He'll have solid value, especially if he can take over as closer.

5.  Adrian's Revenge drops Jason Giambi and picks up Pat Neshek and Kurt Suzuki.

With Brad Lidge going on the DL to start the season, I had a roster spot open.  I wanted a relief pitcher so I could take advantage of their ability to rack up innings without counting against our start limit, and Pat Neshek was one of the best available.  Neshek had a DOM rate of 9.47 and a Command rate of 2.74 last year.  He made 74 appearances in 2007 and tired as the year went on, but he's pitched well this spring with no walks in eight innings.  He again be a dominant reliever to start the season.

I picked up Suzuki for the same reason that Nate picked up Travis Buck, because Suzuki plays for one of only two teams that have games this week.  I'm hoping Suzuki might give me a couple RBI this week before the rest of the league takes the field.  I dropped Giambi because he was the most expendable player on my roster.  He is one to watch though, for those speculating on power.

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Monday Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

As we wait for the 2008 MLB season to begin on the other side of the globe, here are some random thoughts for Monday.


- In my 12-team H2H keeper league, I ended up drafting Rick Ankiel in the 18th round. I needed some power and I was willing to sacrifice average to get it, so I was looking for guys who could conceivably hit 25 or more home runs. I ultimately chose Ankiel over Josh Fields, and after hearing the news that, barring a trade, Fields will most likely start the season in the minors after failing to unseat Joe Crede at third base, I'm happy with the choice I made.

Now ultimately I believe that Fields will have a better career than Ankiel, and Fields shouldn't be in the minors for too long, but I'm glad that I went with the player who had greater job security and little competition at his position. In keeper leagues, a younger player with upside is almost always a more attractive option than a proven veteran who's reached his ceiling, but sometimes you have to go with the guy with the longer track record.

Granted, Ankiel's track record is actually smaller than Fields, but Fields has to contend with a crowded outfield and an incumbent third baseman who hit 30 HR in 2006. Ankiel just has to hold off the not-so-threatening combination of Ryan Ludwick and Brian Barton.

I'm willing to gamble that a full season of Ankiel will give me better value than a partial season of Fields. Sometimes is hard not to get caught up in the hype of a touted prospect, especially in a keeper league, but if you want to contend this year, go with the guy that is assured of a full-time job.

Here are some players that were taken in the middle rounds of our league's draft but either have already been sent down to the minors or a rumored to be sent down:

Colby Rasmus (The Balls dropped him for Dave Roberts)

Jay Bruce

Joey Votto (hasn't been sent down, but hasn't beaten Scott Hatteberg for the starting job

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (thinks he'll be sent down)

Evan Longoria (most likely will be sent down to start the season)

These rookies all have value in keeper leagues, but the chances that they'll be a top 100 player either this year or next is small. There just aren't that many Ryan Braun's in the world. I'll go with guy who actually has a job.

- Kerry Wood was named the Cubs' closer today. This is good news for me as I drafted Wood in hopes that this would happen. Carlos Marmol is still the better pitcher, and he definitely has value due to his strikeout ability and his good command. Now all I need is for Wood to stay healthy and keep the job for the whole year. If he can stay healthy and pitch consistently on back to back outings, 30 saves should be within reach.

In that same article, it was noted that Felix Pie has won the starting centerfielder's job and will bat 8th. It'll be interesting to see what he can do with consistent playing time, something that he was not given last year. Pie could easily steal 25 bases in a full season if he can adapt to major league pitching. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick talks about what Pie has to work on to succeed.

- If you're looking for a deep sleeper with power, you should keep an eye on Florida's Jorge Cantu. Cantu appears to have won the Marlins' third baseman job with a .457 average in 46 spring training at bats. He's been driving the ball well as nearly 40% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Cantu hit 28 HR in Tampa Bay in 2005, and 20 HR aren't out of the question if he can get 550 at bats. What is in question is his ability to hit lefties; he's hit .243 against them in 341 AB's over the last three years. Cantu won't replace Miguel Cabrera for the Marlins, but a better third base option has not presented itself for them, so monitor how Cantu starts the season if you need a few home runs from a corner infield position.

- Injury News

Brewer's lefthander Chris Capuano is likely out for the year. Capuano will probably undergo a second Tommy John surgery as opposed to rehab. Capuano has no value this year, and little for the next, which is a shame because Capuano was a good pitcher in 2005 and 2006 who kept the ball down. He had trouble last year and was moved to the bullpen, but I had hoped he might rebound this year and fly under everyone's radar. Oh well.

Scott Rolen broke his right middle finger during a fielding drill on Sunday. We'll have a time table on how long he'll be out once he sees a specialist on Monday, but GM J.P. Ricciardi says "the early prognosis is it isn't going to be six weeks". Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer has his own prognosis.

Curtis Granderson also had his finger broken this weekend when he was hit by a fastball on Saturday. Granderson will go on the 15-day disabled list, and he expects to be ready in another three weeks. This doesn't sound too serious, and he shouldn't have much trouble getting back into form once he's healthy.

John Smoltz will likely start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder. This sounds like a precautionary move, and hopefully won't be something that bothers him throughout the year.

Brad Lidge has been placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to March 21st, according to the Delaware Online. It looks like he'll miss the first 5 games of the season. I have Lidge on my team as part of a shaky closer trio with Matt Capps and Kerry Wood, so I'm praying this isn't a recurring theme for the year.

- Trade Talks

According to the Denver Post, the Rockies are trying to trade Marcus Giles to the Dodgers. Jayson Nix appears to have the second baseman's job sealed up, and Giles will not accept a minor league assignment, so it looks like a trade will be the only way to make him happy. As a Dodger fan, I'd rather see Tony Abreu get playing time at second while Jeff Kent's hamstring heals, but Abreu might have to replace Nomar Garciaparra and Andy Laroche at third. I don't think Giles will have much value wherever he's traded, so let's move on.

The Nationals are trying to trade Felipe Lopez. Lopez was behind Ronnie Belliard and Christian Guzman on Washington's depth chart, limiting any fantasy value he might have had. If he lands in the right place, Lopez could be a cheap source of steals. He's stolen 68 bases over the last two seasons, and he could have 25 SB this year if he gets traded to a team that likes to run. Watch to see how this plays out.

- What Other Blogs Are Saying

Keith Law points out that Eric Gagne isn't trusting his changeup and he's relying too much on his fastball.

Eric Hz at Fake Teams has some notes on Sunday's spring training performances, including Chad Billingsley and B.J. Upton.

ESPN has posted their 2008 sleepers for both mixed and NL/AL only leagues. Lot of intriguing names on this list, and a lot of guys who've already been on people's radars all spring (I'm looking at you Jeremy Hermida). Happily for me, both Austin Kearns and Rick Ankiel are on the list, reaffirming my own good feelings about them.

All right, less than 24 hours until the season starts. I can't wait.

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My Keepers

For those who are interested, here is my 2007 team’s roster from my Yahoo league, with the seven players I will be keeping for 2008. I didn’t post a full analysis earlier because I wasn’t yet certain who I would keep, and because I didn’t want the other league owners to know my plans. Here’s my roster and keepers.

Adrian’s Revenge

The Hitters
Luis Castillo (NYM - 2B)
Josh Fields (CWS - 3B,OF)
Jeff Francoeur (Atl - OF)
Ryan Garko (Cle - 1B)
Jeremy Hermida (Fla - OF)
Mike Jacobs (Fla - 1B)
Casey Kotchman (LAA - 1B)
Carlos Lee (Hou - OF)
Brian McCann (Atl - C)
Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B,SS)
Hunter Pence (Hou - OF)
Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)
Mark Teixeira (Atl - 1B)
Vernon Wells (Tor - OF)
Chris Young (Ari - OF)
Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B)

The Pitchers
Chad Billingsley (LAD - SP,RP)
Tom Glavine (Atl - SP)
Tom Gorzelanny (Pit - SP)
Jason Hammel (TB - SP,RP)
Luke Hochevar (KC - SP)
Chuck James (Atl - SP,RP)
Kyle Kendrick (Phi - SP)
Ian Snell (Pit - SP)
Adam Wainwright (StL - SP,RP)
Jake Westbrook (Cle - SP)

The Keepers

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Carlos Lee
3. Brian McCann
4. Brian Roberts
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Hunter Pence
7. Chris B. Young

I feel that I have a decent core to build around, though I know that I have a lot of work to do in the draft. I’ll let you know next week how it turns out.

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Keepers Part XI

Finally, we come to our 2007 League Champion, Nate (Naterade) Swanson. Naterade had a very consistent squad that allowed him to be consistently competitive from week to week. I don't think he'll be able to maintain that same consistency in 2008, as most of his keeper options are declining veterans or young players who've yet to fully realize their upside. Naterade will likely struggle a bit, but if some of his players decide to breakout this year, he'll be in contention for another title.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Naterade

The Hitters
Bobby Abreu (NYY - OF)
Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - 2B,SS)
Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
Rafael Furcal (LAD - SS)
Matt Kemp (LAD - OF)
Howie Kendrick (LAA - 1B,2B)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD - 3B)
Adam LaRoche (Pit - 1B)
James Loney (LAD - 1B)
Mike Lowell (Bos - 3B)
Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
Russell Martin (LAD - C)
Manny Ramírez (Bos - OF)
Justin Upton (Ari - OF)
Delmon Young (Min - OF)

The Pitchers
Brian Burres (Bal - SP,RP)
Doug Davis (Ari - SP)
Matt Garza (TB - SP)
Chad Gaudin (Oak - SP,RP)
Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)
Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP)
Francisco Rodríguez (LAA - RP)
Rafael Soriano (Atl - RP)
José Valverde (Hou - RP)
David Weathers (Cin - RP)

The Keepers

1. Nick Markakis
Only 23 last year, Nick Markakis flirted with a 20/20 season in his second full year with the Orioles. A .296 hitter for his career, Markakis caught fire in the second half of last season, hitting .330/14/68. Markakis also hit 43 doubles in 2007, and as he gets older he should start to turn some of those doubles into home runs, especially if improves on his GB/FB ratio. Baltimore does not have much in the way of offensive firepower, but Markakis should find a lot of opportunities for RBI chances hitting third in the lineup. Markakis will be a top-15 outfielder this year, with a shot at making the top 10 if his power continues to grow and if he learns to hit lefties a bit better (.278 for his career). Markakis should provide power and speed and will again flirt with 20 HR and 20 SB.

2. Russell Martin
Russell Martin is another young player who, like Markakis, nearly had a 20/20 season in his second year. Martin showed a lot of speed as a catcher, stealing 21 bases last year. The catcher with the second-most SB was Joe Mauer with 7, so Martin will give you a lot of production in a category that most catchers aren’t really known for. The only thing that will keep Martin from stealing 20 bases again is himself; Martin appeared in 151 games last year and really wore down as the season progressed, only stealing six bases after June. Martin is young, so he should steal at least 15 bases again this year, but if he doesn’t allow Joe Torre to give him a day every now and again, he’ll continue to lose steam as the season goes on. The flip side to his strong desire to be in the lineup every day is that you know he’s always going to try and compete, no matter how he feels. Martin’s power should continue to grow as he matures as a hitter, so there’s no reason not to expect him to be an annual 20 HR hitter. Martin’s one of the top catcher’s in baseball, a description that should fit him for the next few years.

3. Felix Hernandez
Fantasy owners have long-awaited “King” Felix Hernandez’s ascension to the throne as baseball’s best pitcher. While 2008 is not the year that sees an end to their wait, Hernandez should take another step closer to being named one of baseball’s elite pitchers. Even though he’ll only be 22 in April, Hernandez has already amassed 30 Wins in less than 3 seasons. A talented pitcher, Hernandez still has to work on using that talent consistently; last year his successes rarely carried over from game to game. Hernandez does have the base skills that every fantasy owner should look for in a pitcher. He keeps the ball on the ground (his 2.66 GB/FB ratio was 8th in the league last year), he strikes out batters at an elite level (7.80 K/9 in 2007, better than Carlos Zambrano and John Lackey), and he has solid command (3.11 K/BB last year, better than Roy Halladay and Scott Kazmir). These three skills are what turn good pitchers into great pitchers. As long as Hernandez stays healthy, he should continue to mature into a great pitcher. He’ll be a top-20 pitcher in 2008.

4. Manny Ramirez
Manny Ramirez will be 36 in May, and his career has begun to decline, but of all the possible keepers on Nate’s roster, Manny has the best chance to hit 30 or more home runs. While last season was one of the worst of his career offensively (Manny failed to hit 30 home runs for the first time in nine years), he did have a three-month stretch in which he looked like his old self. From May to June, Manny hit .330/15/55, but he started to slump again in August before being shelved for 24 games with a strained left oblique. If Manny can stay healthy, focused and competitive for the next year, he will finish the year as a top-fifteen outfielder. He still has elite skills; he just needs to prove that he can still use them. I think a .310/30/110 is not out of reach for him.

5. Rafael Furcal
Rafael Furcal was another hitter who disappointed in 2007, stealing only 13 stolen bases over the first five months of the season before finishing strong with 12 SB in September. Furcal sprained his ankle in a collision during spring training last year, and it appears that he never fully recovered as his production throughout the season was inconsistent. By all accounts, Furcal’s ankle is completely healthy, and he’s already proved he’s ready to run by hitting two triples in eight spring training games. Furcal’s ability to steal might limited if Juan Pierre, a notorious free-swinger, doesn’t learn how to take a pitch, but 30 steals are not out of reach. I believe that Furcal should finish with stats somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 numbers, good enough to be a top-six shortstop.

6. Delmon Young
Delmon Young has long been an enticing fantasy prospect. A former number-one pick, Young showcased his power and speed in the minors, hitting .320 with 26 HR and 32 SB between AA and AAA in 2005 at the age of 19. Young has the talent to hit .300/25/25 but he needs to work on his plate discipline; he walked just 26 times last year while striking 127 times, limiting his ability to get on base and utilize his speed. A move to Minnesota should help him in many ways; Young’s average was 24 points when playing away from Tropicana field, and being a part of a successful program will hopefully foster a sense of professionalism in him. Despite his short career, Young has gained a reputation of immaturity, and the chance to prove himself to a new team could mean a breakout season in 2008. Young probably won’t gain more RBI opportunities playing for the Twins – their offense was worse than Tampa Bay’s last year, and that was before they lost Torii Hunter – but being surrounded by established stars such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should take the pressure off of him to succeed right away. Young might not be a top-20 outfielder next year but he should be soon, and his upside is too high not to take a chance on.

7. Matt Kemp
Matt Kemp is another five-tool young player looking for a chance to prove himself. In just 292 at bats last year, Kemp hit .342/10/42/10 leading many to hope for a 20/20 season in 2008 with a full season of at bats. Kemp does have the talent to be a top-20 outfielder this year, the only questions is whether he’ll get enough at bats to prove himself. With Juan Pierre in left and Andruw Jones in center, Kemp will most likely share playing time in right with Andre Ethier, barring a trade. I believe that Kemp will get the majority of at bats in left this year; he has much more talent then Ethier and he’s doing everything he can this spring to prove that he’s ready for a full-time job, hitting .324 with 2 HR, 9 RBI and 2 SB in just 34 at bats. Kemp will need to work on his plate discipline, and he won’t maintain his high BA from 2007, but he should continue to improve as a player. Nate already has a lot of outfielders, but Kemp’s upside, like Young’s, is too great to be ignored.

The Also-Rans
Playing for a new contract, Mike Lowell turned in a career year at the age of 33, hitting a career-high .324 (44 points above his career average) with 120 RBI. Lowell has shown a consistent power stroke since coming to Boston, hitting at least 20 HR for the past two years, but it does appear that his power might be beginning to fade. Lowell had less extra-base hits in 2007 than in 2006, and his home run rate was almost the same despite hitting more fly balls in 2007. Lowell’s .324 average in 2007 was probably helped by luck and is unlikely to be repeated; he struck out more times than in 2006 when his average was closer to his career numbers. Lowell will be a decent middle-round option, but a regression from his 2007 numbers is more likely than a repeat. Bobby Abreu could probably provide similar value to Young and Kemp in 2008, but I think he’s more likely to continue to decline as a player. Abreu is 34 and his attempts to steal have been declining for a few years. Abreu also seemed to be less patient at the plate, posting one of the lowest BB/K ratios of his career. Again, Abreu has value, but the upside that Young and Kemp have in a keeper league is more valuable. Nate has told me he’s likely to keep Justin Upton for next season to avoid losing him to another owner. Upton has talent, there’s no denying it, but he may still be a few years from realizing that talent. With only 259 at bats at the AA level, Upton most likely needs another year at the minors to work on his skills. I’m not going to complain if Nate decides to use one of his keeper spots on Upton, because I think it overvalues him and it means one more player available for the eighth round. If Nate is right and another owner would value Upton highly enough to take him in the first ten rounds, then I say drop Upton and let that foolish owner reach for him. Upton has the upside to be great, but he’s only twenty and not worth risking a top-120 pick. James Loney is a good first base prospect who’ll hit for good average – though not as good as the .331 he hit last year – but I’m not convinced he’ll hit 20 HR yet. He offers good value in the middle rounds for those waiting to take a first baseman, but I’d still take Nick Swisher and Carlos Delgado over him. Howie Kendrick will hit for average, but it may take time for him to do anything else. He’ll probably be more of a line-drive hitter who might steal ten bases, but his main value lies in his ability to hit for average. Second base is shallow so he probably won’t last after the tenth round, but I’d rather wait and grab someone like Placido Polanco or Kelly Johnson in the 13th-16th rounds. Stephen Drew is another young middle infielder looking to take advantage of his potential, but Nate already has Furcal at short. While I think he’ll take a step forward this year, Drew will most likely be available after the 16th round in the draft.

Nate, while I must admit there is a lot of upside on your team, I don’t think your squad will be strong enough to repeat as champions this year. You don't have much infield depth, and that may be hard to overcome. It’s going to take a solid draft for you to be competitive in 2008, but seeing as I wasn’t that impressed with the talent on your team last year, I am willing to concede that you may surprise next year. Good luck to you.

That’s it for my look analysis of each team’s keepers in my Yahoo H2H league. Our draft is coming up this weekend; hopefully before then I’ll be able to do a mock draft of the first round. Once the draft is finalized, I’ll be evaluating how each team did by round. Let’s get ready for some baseball.

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Keepers Part X

We move now to our second-place finisher in 2007, the Macafeys. Managed by Tim Ledoux, the Macafeys finished first in the regular season due to a impressive collection of speed and power, solid relief pitching, and a heavy reliance on streaming. The Macafeys ultimately lost in the championship round, but the abundance of talented young players on their roster should again make them competitive in 2008. Let's take a look.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

The Macafeys

The Hitters
Billy Butler (KC - 1B,OF)
Adam Dunn (Cin - OF)
Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)
Brad Hawpe (Col - OF)
Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B)
Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B)
Wily Mo Peña (Was - OF)
Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)
Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)
Álex Ríos (Tor - OF)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)
B.J. Upton (TB - 2B,3B,OF)
David Wright (NYM - 3B)
Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B,OF)

The Pitchers
Homer Bailey (Cin - SP)
Chad Cordero (Was - RP)
Kevin Gregg (Fla - SP,RP)
Trevor Hoffman (SD - RP)
Kei Igawa (NYY - SP)
Aaron Laffey (Cle - SP)
Brandon McCarthy (Tex - SP,RP)
Joe Nathan (Min - RP)
Jeff Suppan (Mil - SP)
Brett Tomko (KC - SP,RP)
Barry Zito (SF - SP)

The Keepers

1. David Wright
If it wasn’t for a certain 2007 AL MVP, David Wright would be the best third baseman in baseball. As it is, being number two is not a bad place to be, especially if you’re also considered one of the top three hitters in fantasy baseball. Wright went 30/30 in 2007, one of only three players to do so last year, and the only third baseman of that elite group. Wright provides great production in all five categories, rare for a corner position, and he’s still yet to reach his prime. He’s even shown the ability to increase his understanding of the strike zone, as shown by his career-high 94 walks last season. Wright should flirt with another 30/30 season in 2008, and he’ll finish the season as one of the top-five fantasy hitters in the MLB.

2. Jimmy Rollins
Shrewd drafting over the past couple of years as allowed Tim to acquire two first-round keepers in their primes. Jimmy Rollins is a top-three shortstop who also went 30/30 last year. He proved that the 25 HR he hit in 2006 were no fluke, topping that number with a career-high 30 HR last year. Rollins’ power growth as arrived over the past two years, but he’s always been a great base-stealer, averaging 35 steals a year since his rookie season, topping 40 three times. Rollins took a while to get going last year, hitting .250 and going homerless in May, but he hit .310 the rest of the way to win the NL MVP award. Rollins plays in a favorable ballpark, and bats leadoff for a powerful lineup, so a 130 runs scored should again be achievable. Even if his power regresses, he’ll still provide 20+ HR with 35-40 SB, and I believe that this is the year he hits .300. Another solid 5-category producer.

3. B.J. Upton
Continuing a trend of infielders with power and speed, B.J. Upton is another young player with 25/25 potential. I don’t think his .300 BA in 2007 was for real and I do expect BA regression in 2008. Upton struck out once every 3.08 at bats in 2007, by far the most frequent rate among .300 or better hitters last year. Upton cannot sustain that high of a batting average unless he cuts down on his strikeouts. I think an average around .275-.280 is more likely. Upton is a star in the making, but he did appear to become overmatched as the season went on, hitting .260 and striking out 69 times in 205 at bats from August to September. Expect him to take a step back in 2008, but the power and speed is for real, he will only need some experience before he can improve upon his 2007 numbers.

4. Alex Rios
I’m already jealous of the talent that Tim has accumulated with his first four keepers, as each of these hitters provides, at the very least, four-category production. Alex Rios has long tantalized fantasy owners with his 20/20 upside. He’s never matched his potential, mainly due to the fact that he tends to wear down over the course of the season, only exceeding 481 at bats once in his career. Last season he appeared in 161 games, hitting .297/24/85/17, and it’s this kind of production that makes me think he’ll be a top-15 outfielder in fantasy baseball. Heck, if it all falls together for him, he could be top-10, but I’m not expecting it. Rios needs to improve his numbers against right-handed pitching if he wants to be a .300 hitter. I don’t think he’ll improve that much on his 2007 numbers, but even if he doesn’t, he’s still a solid contributor in nearly all areas.

5. Adam Dunn
By now we all know what to expect from Adam Dunn; he’s a durable player who swings for the fences, providing you with a low batting average and a high number of home runs. Over the past four years, Dunn has averaged 158 games played, 41 home runs, and a .250 batting average. Tim already has a few guys on his team who hit for a high average, so he can afford the effects of Dunn’s poor batting average in order to reap the benefits of his power. With the benefit of a favorable home stadium, Dunn should continue to mash, and his power will place him among the top-20 outfielders. Of course, Tim wouldn’t have Dunn if I hadn’t traded him for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, right before Ensberg took a dive in the second half, crapping all over my season. Let’s move on.

6. Derek Lee
Derek Lee is getting older, and last year was a bit disappointing for those expecting his fourth 30 HR season, but Lee is still a top-ten first baseman for 2008. As long as he’s healthy, he should be good for 25 home runs and a .300 average. I don’t see him reaching double-digits in steals, but he could be good for 8. What gives me hope for a power resurgence for Lee is that he got better as the year went on, with 16 of his 22 home runs coming after June. What doesn’t give me hope is that he’s not hitting as many fly balls as he once did. Lee still has the power to hit 30 HR, but he can’t do it if he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. I’m still confident that he has another top-ten first baseman season in him, so go ahead and keep him.

7. Alex Gordon
Alex Gordon was another player who disappointed fantasy owners in 2007, as the “fabled heir” to George Brett ended up playing like just another rookie. Expectations aside, if we judge Gordon’s season on its own merits, 60/.247/15/60/14 is quite respectable for a 23-year old facing his first major league competition. AJ Mass at ESPN.com recently discussed how the hype surrounding Alex Gordon skews our perception of his final 2007 stats. As for me, I know that Tim already has two good corner infield options, but I say you have to take another chance on Gordon, if only because he could be one of the few 1B/3B eligible players to go 20/20 this season. It might take some time for him to get that batting average up to a respectable area, but the power and speed are there. Gordon has enough upside to justify taking the CI spot on Tim’s roster.

The Also-Rans
Tim has a couple players that could be kept instead of Gordon, but I like his upside too much to recommend them over him. Brad Hawpe showed continued power growth in 2008, hitting 29 HR in just 516 at bats, but I think he’ll have trouble hitting .290 again if he continues to struggle so badly against left-handers (.224 against them over the past three years). I think he’ll be a solid outfield option, but there’s enough outfield depth that Tim can afford to pass on him. Ian Kinsler is another guy who went 20/20 in 2007 (geez Tim, how many of those guys did you have last year?), but I don’t think he does it again next year. His power really left him in the second half last year, only six home runs, though he did miss most of July due to injury. He does provide a good combination of power and speed, but his inability to hit right-handers keeps his average down, and besides, Tim already has a 2B-eligible Upton on his squad. There’s a quartet of closers that Tim has the option to keep, but Joe Nathan is the only one I would consider keeping, and I wouldn’t take him over Alex Gordon. Nathan’s averaged 40 saves and 88 strikeouts over the past four years that he’s been Minnesota’s closer, so he’s definitely valuable, but there will be many closers available in our draft, so Tim should do fine without Nathan. Trevor Hoffman is still a good closer, but he’s older and getting more unreliable every year. Kevin Gregg was a surprise closer last year for the Marlins, but he still doesn’t have the job security needed for a closer to be deemed keeper-worthy. Chad Cordero is another closer whose skills have been slipping, as his K/BB rate has steadily decreased over the past three seasons; he could find himself traded or passed over for another option like Jon Rauch. Billy Butler has the skills to hit .300 this year, but he hasn’t displayed much in the way of power yet, and Kansas City is not necessarily the best place to find Runs and RBI. He has value, but wait until the later rounds to get him. Kevin Youkilis will give you a good average, okay power, and a good amount of Runs, but Tim already has his corner infield spots locked up, so he’s redundant.

Tim, you have a very impressive collection of players with both power and speed. Four top-50 players in a 12-team league is an excellent base to start from. I think Tim could be the team to beat in 2008.

All right, one more team to go. Hopefully by Sunday I’ll have posted my look at Nate’s team and will have finished my series of keeper analysis for each team in my league.

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Keepers Part IX

Our third-place finisher in 2007 was Ben Posluch’s Screaming Lemurs. The Lemurs have a nice pool of rising stars to choose from, with an emphasis on speed. I expect them to contend for the championship again in 2008. Let’s look at their keeper options.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

The Screaming Lemurs

The Hitters
Ryan Braun (Mil - 3B)
Carl Crawford (TB - OF)
Jack Cust (Oak - OF)
Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
Curtis Granderson (Det - OF)
J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)
Jason Kubel (Min - OF)
Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B)
Hideki Matsui (NYY - OF)
Kazuo Matsui (Hou - 2B)
Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B)
Matt Stairs (Tor - 1B,OF)
Miguel Tejada (Hou - SS)
Jim Thome (CWS - Util)

The Pitchers
Heath Bell (SD - RP)
Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)
A.J. Burnett (Tor - SP)
Matt Capps (Pit - RP)
Manny Corpas (Col - RP)
Kelvim Escobar (LAA - SP)
Yovani Gallardo (Mil - SP)
Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)
Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)
Francisco Liriano (Min - SP,RP)
Carlos Mármol (ChC - SP,RP)
Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)


The Keepers

1. Carl Crawford
Carl Crawford is a solid source of steals and batting average, with a decent amount of RBI thrown in for good measure. His career BA is .296, and over the past 5 years he’s averaged 53 stolen bases. He’ll be 26 to start the season, so there’s no reason to think he can’t steal another 50-55 bases in 2008. What keeps him from being a first-rounder for me is the fact that I don’t see him hitting more than 15 home runs next year. After he hit 18 home runs in 2006, it appeared that he was ready to join the 20/20 club, but he disappointed those expectations by hitting only 11 home runs in 2007. He did set a career high in doubles with 37, so you know that he can still drive the ball, but what keeps him from turning those doubles into home runs is his ratio of ground balls to fly balls hit. He just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a 20/20 man, which is a good thing because the more ground balls he hits, the better he’s able to take advantage of his amazing speed. Crawford hit a career-high .315 in 2007, but I expect that number to drop this year as he also struck out a career-high 112 times. I think Crawford will hit .300 with 13 home runs, 75 RBI, 95-100 runs scored, and 50-55 stolen bases.

2. Curtis Granderson
Curtis Granderson could almost be considered Carl Crawford lite; they’re close to the same age, both outfielders, they hit lots of triples, they’re both leadoff hitters with some pop, but Granderson is the only one of the two to have a 20/20 season on his resume. Crawford has more value because of his stolen bases and greater reliability, but Granderson can move into the top-ten starting outfielders if he can prove that last year’s numbers were not a fluke. Granderson might have trouble hitting .300 again if he can’t improve his ability to hit left-handed pitching; he hit .160 against them in 2007 and .218 the year before. Luckily for him the best left-hander in the division just moved to the National League. Granderson should be good for another 100+ runs hitting leadoff in the high-powered Detroit lineup, and he should be a threat to repeat his 20/20 performance from last year, but expect a drop in batting average.

3. Ryan Braun
Speaking of 20/20 players, Ryan Braun is one of a handful of third basemen projected to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases this season. The 2007 Rookie of the Year had a monster season, hitting 34 home runs with 97 RBI in just 451 at bats. The only question is can he continue to produce at such a high level? Well I definitely don’t think he’ll hit .324 again, not unless he improves his plate discipline. Of all the players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2007, only one other player (B.J. Upton) managed to also hit .300 or better and have a worse strikeout rate. Braun cannot maintain his .324 BA if he continues to strikeout once every 4 at bats. I think Braun is more likely to hit around .300 this year, especially since he’ll face more right-handed pitching this year, against whom he hit .282 in 2007. Braun crushed lefties last year, but he does have to face five pretty good righties in his division: Carlos Zambrano, Aaron Harang, Roy Oswalt, Ian Snell, and Adam Wainwright. Braun can be a great player, but until he proves that he can handle the adjustments that major league pitching will have made for him, I’m hesitant to project better than last year’s output with a .300 BA. Great numbers, but not yet first round material.

4. Victor Martinez
With Victor Martinez on your squad, you are set for a year of solid production from the catcher’s position, though you will have to spend a high draft pick to get him. That’s what happens when you have a durable catcher who’s averaged 21 home runs and 98 RBI over the past four seasons, along with a career BA of .301. Martinez should again be the best catcher in fantasy baseball. A switch-hitter, he doesn’t have any noticeable weakness from either side of the plate, and a solid Cleveland offense – assuming Travis Hafner rebounds and Ryan Garko’s development continues – should provide many opportunities for RBI and run-scoring chances. Cleveland keeps him fresh by spotting him at first base and DHing him, providing him more plate appearances than the normal catcher. As a hitter in his prime, Martinez should have no problem matching last year’s production.

5. Aramis Ramirez
As long as Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy, he should be a solid 2nd-tier third baseman in 2008. But can he stay healthy? In 2007, Ramirez suffered through tendonitis in both his right wrist and his left knee, making one 15-day trip to the DL in June. According to The Disabled List Informer, some of the causes of patellar tendonitis are “1) deconditioning; 2) muscle weakness; 3) overuse/overtraining; 4) faulty foot posture; and 5) recent weight gain with sustained activity (i.e. you get fatter and expect to perform the same frequency and intensity of working out).” Ramirez has missed the first five games of spring training due to a sore throwing shoulder, so it’s hard to tell how ready he is to start the season. Despite being injured most of last year, Ramirez did hit .310 with 26 HR and 101 RBI, and he’s averaged 30 home runs a year over the past seven years. Ramirez is a talented, patient hitter, and even if he has to make a trip to the DL – which is likely – he still is a good bet to hit close to 30 HR with 100 RBI and a .290 BA. Not bad numbers for a corner spot.

6. Brandon Webb
An annual Cy Young contender, Brandon Webb is one of the top pitchers in the NL, right behind Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. He set career highs in 2007 in strikeouts, wins, ERA, and innings pitched. He increased is K/9 rate to 7.39 last year as a result of using his changeup in conjunction with his dominating sinker. I don’t think he’ll strike out 200 batters in 2008, mostly because he needs to pitch a lot of innings to rack up the K’s, and not many pitchers can pitch 225+ innings for multiple years in a row without getting fatigued. Webb didn’t seem to tire much late in the season last year, as he had a 42 scoreless innings streak between July and August. Webb’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and to throw his pitches for strikes makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. My favorite qualities in a pitcher are an ability to keep the ball in the park and throw for strikes, and Webb has those in spades. Keep an eye on his walks in 2008, as there was a sharp increase from 59 in 2005 and 50 in 2006 to 72 last year. Webb should be a top 5 fantasy pitcher this year.

7. Tim Lincecum
The Screaming Lemurs have a few talented young pitchers on their 2007 roster that they could tab as keepers for this year, but I’m going to go for the pitcher with the least amount of injury risk. Tim Lincecum will struggle for wins in San Francisco, but he plays in a very favorable ballpark, as opposed to the bandbox in Philadelphia that Cole Hamels calls home. He was actually better on the road than at home with a .211 BAA on the road and a .241 BAA at home. Lincecum had a great strikeout rate in 2007 of 9.23 per nine innings, comparable to Santana’s and Peavy’s. He plays in a division with some very good pitchers parks, and a couple average offenses. He doesn’t give up a lot of home runs and he has a good K/BB ratio of 2.31. As a second-year player, Lincecum will face some hurdles as hitters adjust to him, but he’s got a lot of talent and upside.

Wait a minute – why am I recommending taking the second-year pitcher over the proven veteran? Here I am, all set to name Lincecum the 7th keeper of the Screaming Lemurs squad when Miguel Tejada is right there. Posluch has to keep Tejada, if only because there is a major drop off in talent after the first ten shortstops, and most of those guys will be protected as keepers already. There’s going to be a lot of starting pitching depth in our draft, and Lincecum could be had in another round or two. If Posluch doesn’t keep Tejada, he’ll probably have to wait a few rounds to take Johnny Peralta or Khalil Greene.

Okay, forget everything I said about keeping Lincecum. For the Lemurs 7th keeper:

7. Miguel Tejada
ESPN projects Tejada to hit 26 home runs in 2008. I’m not exactly buying it – I mean he hit 18 in 2007 (with an injured wrist) and 24 in 2006 – but I think 20-22 homeruns are in reach. Now, I think 22 is his ceiling, but that’s not that far from 26, so if Tejada shows the type of power that he did after returning from wrist injury, when he hit 10 HR in August, then he could hit more than 22. Call me a cynic though, as I think that all the steroid allegations surrounding Tejada result in less than 26 HR. Tejada should hit for a good average, and the dimensions of his new home should help him, so I do think that Tejada should still be considered a top-ten shortstop. The depth at that position drops off quickly outside of the top-ten, so Lemurs have to take him, and they should feel good about it too. Tejada’s a good pick if we expect numbers somewhere in between his ’06 and ’07 seasons.

The Also-Rans
The Lemurs have a quartet of promising rookie pitchers with questions surrounding them. You’ve already heard my thoughts on Lincecum, who I like but will probably struggle a bit in his second year. Cole Hamels has great stuff, striking out 322 batters in 315.2 innings to start his career, but he already has a history of injuries. He suffered a strained shoulder in 2006, and strained his pitching elbow in 2007, limiting him to just six starts in the last two months of the season. Hamels should be healthy to start the season, and he’ll most likely be the best available pitcher in the draft, but I think he’s a bit of an injury risk, so I’ll pass. Yovani Gallardo is another good young pitcher with a bright future, but he is coming off knee surgery and will probably miss the start of the season. Draft him, but not in the first seven rounds. Francisco Liriano pitched great in 2006, but had to undergo Tommy John surgery that off-season, causing him to miss all of last season. He’s back now, but don’t expect his 2006 numbers right away, as he’ll probably need some time to get back into form. Again, all four of these pitchers have talent, but we don’t quite know what to expect from them as they haven’t pitched long enough to have a track record. Coupled with some injury risk and I say wait on them. Hideki Matsui is another player returning from injury – he had knee surgery in November – who should put up decent numbers, but he’s not a top-25 outfielder. You can draft outfielders just like him without the gimpy knee and with a bit more speed in the 9th and 10th rounds. Jim Thome is old, but he can still mash, as shown by the 77 home runs he’s hit over the past two seasons with the White Sox. I think Thome is a good bet to hit 30 home runs again, as long as you aren’t afraid of his DH-only eligibility. He’s a very good value pick if he lasts to the 9th round, which he might if people just look at his age and not his recent production. J.J. Hardy could be a good replacement if you miss out on a top-ten shortstop; he’ll struggle to match his 2007 home run total, but he could hit 20 HR with an okay average.

Ben, you’ve got a decent mix of speed and power, though you could look to add a slugger with your first pick. One position that you might have to reach to fill is first base, as almost all of the first and second tier 1B’s will be protected as keepers, and guys like Carlos Pena will probably be drafted by the time you pick. You have a nice foundation and I have no doubt that you’ll draft well enough to fill any glaring needs.

Just two more teams left to look at, and then I’ll try to look at how each team in my league should draft in the first round, if there’s time. Our draft is coming up, and I do want to be prepared.

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