Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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Trade Spin

Two trades so far this season and I have been involved in both of them.

After I named a players from each team that I wanted in my power rankings, Naterade responded by offering me Justin Morneau and Robinson Cano for Mark Teixiera and Emmanuel Burriss.  Nate has tried every year to pry Teixiera from me, and this was the deal that finally did it.  I really needed to upgrade at second base, so I was happy to receive Cano.  I felt that the upgrade that Cano represented over Burriss balanced out the downgrade from Teixiera to Morneau.  I think Morneau is a top-five first baseman, and though he doesn't have the power potential of Teixiera, Morneau is not that far off in the other offensive categories.  Cano balances out the slight offensive drop off by giving me one of the top 6 or 7 second baseman in the league.  I think Cano will bounce back from last season's mediocre batting average to hit over .300 again with 15+ HR.  He's a big upgrade for my team over Burriss, who I had picked up for his stolen base potential but had instead been killing my team's BA.

I'm not surprised that Naterade targeted Burriss; he had complimented my pickup of Burriss at the start of the season and Natarade could use the steals.  He gets a star in Teixiera, who was one of the longest tenured players on my team.  I first drafted Teixiera in 2006 and I've dealt with his slow starts every year.  He will pick things up, but it's hard to deal with slow starts from your star players in a H2H league.  Teixiera is a better keeper than Morneau, but I think having Cano will help me more this year.

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Power Rankings

It's time for the first power rankings of the year.  For those who don't know, this is a ranking of the 12 teams in my head-to-head keeper league.  As always, these are 90% subjective and they are a measure of how I think each team will do from this point on.  I reserve the right to change my opinion about each and every one of these team's throughout the year.  As an added bonus, I have designated one player from each team that I would like to have on my own team in a transparent attempt to ignite some trade talks.  These power rankings will appear intermittently throughout the season because they are time-consuming, though I will be more inclined to do them if you guys ask nicely.  Feel free to debate these rankings in the comments section.  Onto the rankings.

1. The $5 Footlongs

With Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and Carlos Beltran, this offense can officially be considered stacked.  Most teams will not outslug them, and they might find it hard to outrun them since they also have Jacoby Ellsbury, Rafael Furcal, Bobby Abreu, and Adam Jones.  This outfield is a little light on power, so any home run droughts in the infield will be a blow to this team.  This team has great pitching, and though Tim Lincecum and Kevin Slowey have struggled so far, both pitchers should be fine.  This team has a solid bullpen, especially if Trevor Hoffman can stay healthy.  The only thing I can nitpick about this team is after their top four pitchers, they are relying on guys like Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Anthony Reyes, and Rick Porcello.  These pitchers all have value, but it’s not a good sign to see them all in one place.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: Kevin Slowey.  I think he’s going to be a top-15 pitcher this year. 

 

2. Screaming Lemurs

The Lemurs have a good mix of speed and power; this is a very balanced lineup.  Victor Martinez has started hot out of the gate this season, probably trying to erase any memory of his awful 2008 season.  Travis Snider has also started well, and he could have a solid rookie year.  The Lemurs need Alex Gordon to step things up this year to make this lineup one of the best in the league.  I’m a big fan of this team’s pitching, even with Brandon Webb on the DL.  John Danks, Javier Vasquez, Matt Garza, and Johnny Cueto should all have good seasons.  Saves will be scarce on this team, but the Lemurs have already taken advantage of Trevor Hoffman’s injury by picking up Carlos Villaneuva, who should get a few save opportunities before Hoffman comes back.  The Lemurs went 4-6 last week, but that was a very close matchup that could have easily been 6-4 in their favor.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Johnny Cueto.  He’s going to bounce back this year.

 

3. Naterade

This is a team that is better than the 5-4-1 record they put up last week against a very strong Macafeys team.  Naterade has a solid offense with a few young stars and a great pitching staff anchored by young aces such as Chad Billingsley, Felix Hernandez, and Josh Beckett.  This team should have a lot of high strikeout totals each week.  Naterade will more than hold his own in the pitching categories each week, but they may have trouble beating some of the more powerful offenses in our league.  Other than Justin Morneau and Evan Longoria, this team is a little light on power.  They will need guys like Justin Upton to improve this year if they want to go deep into the playoffs this year.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: Robinson Cano.  I think he’s going to have a strong season this year. 

 

4. Dissect Yourself

I think this offense is better than people realize.  Micah has lots of power and a good amount of speed on this team.  This team could be poised for a deep playoff run if Chris Davis and Ryan Doumit can hit like they did last year, and if Troy Tulowitzki can return to his 2007 form.  Micahel Bourn will steal a lot of bases if he can keep hitting the way he is now.  The bullpen is very solid, and Micah should come close to winning the Saves category every week.  The pitching is decent, but I’m not a fan of Carlos Zambrano, even with his good start.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Ubaldo Jimenez.  Despite pitching in Coors, I think Jimenez will be a good pitcher.

 

5. Macafeys

Last year’s champions have a strong team again this year, but I feel that it’s a bit weaker offensively than the 2008 team.  They have fantasy studs like David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Geovany Soto, but they also have some weak spots, specifically at the middle infield positions.  The Macafeys have reloaded with young up-and-comers such as Adam Lind and Matt Wieters; Wieters will especially be valuable to the Macafeys as either Wieters or Soto will become a trade chip once Wieters is promoted.  Mike Jacobs has started slow, but I really like the power that he offers and he’s a solid CI or UT.  I’m not a Milton Bradley fan, mainly because he can’t stay healthy.  I think Nelson Cruz will be good this year, but I’m not buying into the hype that he generated with last year’s performance.  The pitching staff is very good; having Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright, and Yovani Gallardo will result in some great pitching totals every week.  Closers are scarce on this team, though Jose Arredondo and Scott Downs could find a few saves this year.  Downs could supplant BJ Ryan as the Blue Jays closer if Ryan is injured or inefficient, greatly increasing Downs’ value.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Erik Bedard.  I’m buying into Bedard’s comeback year.   

 

6. The Balls

The Balls are also strong offensively, though there are some question marks on their team; Shin-Soo Choo and Xavier Nady have started out well, but can they continue to hit well throughout the season, or will find themselves losing at bats if they struggle?  Also, will Jarrod Saltalamacchia bust out of his slump and overtake Elvis Andrus as the jewel of the Mark Teixiera trade, or will he be a black hole at catcher for the Balls this year?  This team will run and hit, but batting average might be a problem for them.  The pitching staff should be pretty good, with Jake Peavy, Ricky Nolasco, and Derek Lowe running out there every five days.  I’m also a fan of Jair Jurrjens for this season, more so than I am of Gavin Floyd who, last season’s 17 Wins notwithstanding, I feel is overrated.  This team is good enough to win 6-4 every week, but I think they will struggle in the Saves, BA, and Wins categories.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Jair Jurrjens.  He’s going to surprise some people.

 

7. Order of the Phoenix

There’s some good power on this team stored in the bats of Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, and Ryan Ludwick, but this team should find steals hard to come by with Jose Reyes their only proven base stealer.  Even if Reyes has a monster year and steals 3 bags a week, this team will struggle in the SB category against most teams in the league.  There’s talent on the mound for the Phoenix, but there’s not a lot of depth behind Scott Kazmir and Francisco Liriano.  The bullpen is very good, so the Phoenix should be competitive in Saves, WHIP, and ERA, but K’s and Wins might be hard to come by for this staff.  It looks like Mark plans to address this problem by rotating out as many pitchers as the league allows each week, which should help him if he can pick solid matchups each time.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: It’s a tossup between Pablo Sandoval and Manny Parra.  Both players have started slow, but I think they’re going to have great years.

 

8. Adrian’s Revenge

My team has been hurt by injuries.  Already I’ve had to deal with Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, and Melvin Mora making trips to the DL (Joe Mauer and Kelvim Escobar are also on the DL but they were like that when I got them).  Only the young guys on my team want to hit; Mark Teixiera, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen have given early performances ranging from awful to so-so.  Still, I like my team’s chances to make the playoffs if they can turn things around.  I really like my pitching staff, especially with the way Zack Greinke and Gil Meche have been pitching.  It would be nice if Joel Hanrahan would get a save, but I guess the Nationals would have to win a game for that to happen. 

 

9. Summer Fox

The Fox has the best record after the first week, but their team resembles a MASH unit more than a baseball team.  6 Fox players are on the DL, though Ichiro just came off recently, and it’s not looking like Hiroki Kuroda will return next week when eligible.  This team has a good offense with some young stars to build around.  Their hitting will need to carry the team until the pitching can get healthy.  Right now they are depending on Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, and Jamie Moyer to anchor their staff.  There’s not much in the way of relief on this team, and it might be time to drop Joey Devine for another pitcher since he won’t be back any time soon.  This team can be competitive in the future if managed right, but they will need to get some pitching help if they want to be competitive this year.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Stephen Drew.  I think he’s going to be a solid SS for the next five years or so.

10. Butt Admirals

This could be again one of the faster teams in the league.  They don’t have any true burners, except for possibly Chone Figgins, but they do have quite a few guys that can steal 20-30 bases.  Elvis Andrus is a guy who will probably struggle at the plate, but he had 93 steals over the last two years in the minors, so I think it’s safe to say that he’ll have value this year.  Their pitching staff isn’t as solid as the offense, especially with the injury to Chris Carpenter, who was doing so well prior to getting hurt.  Dan Haren is a stud, Rich Harden is only as good as he’s healthy, and Edinson Volquez has talent, though he probably won’t be as good as he was last year.  Beyond those three, there isn’t much else.  The Admirals should be fine most weeks because they have a solid bullpen to help out in WHIP and ERA, though I’d probably think about dropping Takashi Saito for a reliever or starter with less health issues, preferably one that strikes out a lot of batters.  This team is well-suited to compete over the next couple of years if their young players like Chase Headley and Andrus can mature into All-Stars.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Joey Votto.  I think this guy’s going to be a star for years to come.

 

11. Orc Mischief

This is a boring team.  It’s boring, and I mean that as a compliment.  None of the players on this team are really sexy breakout picks, except for Alexei Ramirez probably, but they get the job done.  Players like Mark Reynolds, Mike Cameron, and Brad Hawpe don’t seem that great during the season because they can be streaky, but their stats at the end of the year are solid.  This team will have a lot of power, but I think their batting average will be suspect most weeks.  The Orcs will need to use that power to bash their opponents into submission each week, because there’s not much going on in the bullpen.  Johan Santana has started the season with his typically amazing results and Jon Lester is a solid young ace, but Chien-Ming Wang has been awful and Joe Saunders is overrated.  This team will have to hope their relievers give them solid ERA and WHIP each week.  I think this team could surprise some people if they get in the playoffs, but I don’t think the Orcs are built to win beyond this year.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Brad Hawpe.  Solid slugger.

 

12. The Tossers

What I like about this offense: Travis Hafner looks to be making a bit of a comeback, Corey Hart is a solid 20/20 player, Chris Iannetta could be a top-5 catcher, and Alex Rodriguez might be his old self by May.  What I don’t like: There are a lot of older guys here, which is not a good sign for a team that didn’t have a lot of success last year.  I do like the power and speed that Torii Hunter and Jayson Werth bring, but this team does not have a lot of stars.  The pitching staff is looking better than the offense, especially because bullpen offers three solid closers.  Aaron Harang also looks like he’s ready to bounce back from last year, and Ted Lilly is always good for strikeouts and a decent WHIP and ERA.  This team will need Cliff Lee to pitch better because the pitching staff will be critical to this team’s season record.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Ted Lilly.

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Tip of the Cap

I want to offer a tip of the cap, to steal Stephen Colbert's oft-used and possibly trademarked phrase, to my opponent this week the Balls for their prodigious offensive output today.  They hit .386 with 10 Runs, 6 HR, and 15 RBI, giving them a large lead over my pitiful .194/7/1/2 day.

Big hitters for the Balls were Carlos Quentin with 2 HR and 4 RBI, and Aubrey Huff with 4 hits and 3 RBI.  The Balls' offense is off to a solid start this season, and I commend them on their strong performance today.

Though my offense fared poorly today, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on the solid pitching performance I received from Zack Greinke in his match against the Indians.  Greinke struck out 9 in just 5 innings, and though his WHIP suffered from 6 hits and 2 walks, Greinke recieved the W.  Greinke has put up some great numbers in his first two starts, striking out 16 while keeping the opposition scoreless through 11 innings, and I'm excited to see what he'll do as the year progresses.  

Since we are giving out tips of the cap, I'd like to acknowledge the strong pitching performances that the Macafeys and Naterade put up against each other last week.  The Macafeys barely overcame Naterade in 3 out of the 5 categories while tying in Saves.  The Macafeys received strong performances from Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson, while Naterade countered with Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.  Both teams look like they will have formidable rotations this year.

I hope to have a short power rankings up by Friday, and maybe a small look back at the first two weeks of the season early next week.  

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Notes From Around My League

Wow, was it a bad first day for my offense.  

Our final line: 7/40 - 6 Runs - 1 HR - 3 RBI - 0 SB

My best player today was Matt Kemp, who went 1/3 with a solo home run.  Magglio Ordonez was my only player to have multiple hits.  

The worst offenders on my team today: Mark Teixiera 0/4, Mark DeRosa 0/3, and Jhonny Peralta 0/3.

On the pitching side for me, Paul Maholm turned in a solid start against the Cardinals with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 6.2 innings, and Kevin Gregg converted his first save of the season despite a shaky ninth.

Dissect Yourself, my opponent this week, started the day almost as poorly as I did, but he was able to rebound with good performances from Brian Roberts, Alfonso Soriano, and Michael Bourn.  We are now tied in HR, RBI, and Steals.

Around My League

As we'll see, almost every team in our league has suffered from a slow start to the season.

 - The Balls were nearly as bad as I was today, hitting .194; the lone bright spot was Hanley Ramirez's 2/1/5 line.  The Balls were able to put up strong strikeout totals because of Jake Peavy and Ricky Nolasco's efforts, though neither pitcher was especially sharp.  

- Cliff Lee was destroyed by Rangers' hitting, marring an otherwise strong pitching day for the Tossers.  Lee's outing has put the Tossers in early hole in the ERA and WHIP categories.

- Order of the Phoenix has to be happy that Hank Blalock is starting the season healthy; Blalock and Ryan Ludwick combined for 2 HR and 5 RBI to pull the Phoenix into an early lead over Summer Fox in every offenensive category.  It's a good thing that this team is doing well offensively as their pitching line stands at a 12.46 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in 13 innings (not counting any stats that Brian Fuentes might provide later tonight) due to awful outings by Aaron Cook and Justin Verlander.

- Summer Fox was without Jason Bay's and Kevin Youkilis's bats today because their game was postponed due to poor weather.  This set the tone for the Fox's team as five other players from their team also watched Opening Day from the bench.

- How about the 2 HR from Felipe Lopez against the Rockies, where did those come from?  The Macafeys have to love that performance almost as much as the 4 hit, 6 RBI day that Adam Lind produced.  We can't expect much power from Lopez the rest of the year, but Lind is a forgotten prospect who could be finally figuring out major league pitching.  

- Probably the best pitching performance of the night was Felix Hernandez's 8 inning gem with 6 K's and 1 ER.  Hernandez's stellar outing was marred by 3 walks, but he keeps Naterade ahead of the Macafeys in ERA and WHIP.

- Emilio Bonifacio has made Orc Mischief look like a genius for picking him up, putting up probably the best hitting line of the night - 4 hits, 4 Runs, 1 HR, 2 RBI, and 3 SB.  Steals were tough to come by in our league today, and Bonifacio has given the Butt Admirals an early challenge in the steals category.  

-  Though the Admirals did not steal any bases today, they could have one of the fastest lineups in the league and they may still have a chance to overtake the Mischief in that category.

Best Team Hitting Performance

Screaming Lemurs - .412/6 Runs/4 HR/12 RBI/1 SB

Best Team Pitching Performance

Orc Mischief - 12.1 Innings/1 Win/0 Saves/9 K/0.73 ERA/0.97 WHIP (Joe Saunders is in line for the win with the Angels game in the 8th inning at the time of this writing.

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First Trade of the Year

I was happy to be a part of the first trade of the year in our league as I and Orc Mischief swapped players.   Orc Mischief looks to have improved their chances of success this year and I have added some risk in the hopes that I will have greater success in the near future.  I tend to make at least one bad trade each year (Adam Dunn for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, Brian Roberts for Kelly Johnson in 2008) and hopefully this trade won't bite me in the ass this  year.

Here's the trade: I get Matt Kemp and Joe Mauer and Orc Mischief gets Brian McCann and Carlos Lee.  

Orc Mischief has greatly improved their team by moving an injured catcher for a better one and adding one of the best and most consistent sluggers in the game.  Both are solid keepers for next year.  I gave up a lot, but I did get younger by adding Kemp, whose steals should make up for Lee's power, and my hope is that he will be a solid star for years to come.  Lee is a great player but he probably can play at an elite level for only a couple more years.  Getting Kemp greatly improves my keepers for next year, though I may have hurt by team's ability to be competitive in 2009.  How I do will depend on how many games Joe Mauer misses this year.  If Mauer only misses a month, I could still be in the hunt for the playoffs, because when he's a great hitter when healthy.  I think McCann is a better fantasy player, but Mauer is not far behind.  I think both teams got a fair deal from this trade.

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