Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Trade Review - Ryan Howard for Nelson Cruz/Adam Wainwright/Roy Halladay

The final trade prior to the league's deadline, and the second of the day for the Macafeys, involves two teams heading for the consolation bracket during the playoffs. The Macafeys move Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay to The Balls for Ryan Howard, as both teams look towards future keeper plans.


I think Tim gave up too much to get Ryan Howard. Howard is a beast who can hit 50 HR a year, but he's hit .262 since his MVP season in 2006, and he'll be 30 to start next season. When Howard was named MVP, he hit .313 with 58 HR, astounding numbers that I think will be an outlier for his career stats. Howard has power, but I don't like his chances to hit over .300 again. Tim did receive a talented player, as Howard will be his best first baseman and power hitter heading into the 2010 season, but I think he could have received a little better deal for the players he offered.

Those players include two of the best pitchers in the game, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. Halladay is putting up one of the best strikeout rates of his career, and he continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Halladay will be 33 to start next season, but there's no reason to assume that he will not continue to be an ace in the AL. With 200 less starts in his career than Halladay, Wainwright has less of a track record of success than the Cy Young winner, but the young pitcher has shown this year that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB. It's a sign of his talent that his numbers have gotten better as the year has moved along. If Brubaker keeps both pitchers along with new White Sox ace Jake Peavy, he will have a collection of pitching talent that could top any other team in the league. Typically I don't like to keep pitchers, but if you can amass a group of talented aces it can be worth the risk to keep them.

The third player in the trade, Nelson Cruz, looks like he could be a rich man's Mike Cameron. I was down on the late-blooming OF at the beginning of the year, but he has put up some impressive numbers this year with 26 HR and 17 SB. Brubaker may have to drop someone he likes to make room for Cruz on his keeper list, but he could be getting a top-20 OF if Cruz can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range.

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Friday, August 21, 2009

Trade Review - Alex Rios/Andrew Bailey for Curtis Granderson

In the first of two trades by the Macafeys prior to the deadline, Tim trades Alex Rios and Andrew Bailey to the Screaming Lemurs for Curtis Granderson. The Lemurs appear to be nearly assured of a playoff spot, while the Macafeys are most likely headed for the consolation bracket.


With Andrew Bailey, the Lemurs now have a third closer to go along with Heath Bell and Leo Nunez. Bailey will be a strong #2 closer behind Bell, and this relief depth will help the Lemurs as they contend for the championship. He should have a handful of saves the rest of the year, and his high strikeout totals will come in handy. The Lemurs lose some power in this trade, but I believe the tradeoff is worth it to get more saves, and Rios's offensive potential should help make up for the loss of Granderson. Rios is only hitting .265 this year, but he has shown in the past that he can be a better hitter than Granderson and he can match Granderson's ability for steals. Rios has yet to have the breakout season that everyone has expected of him, but he is a decent keeper for next year due to his combination of power and speed.

Granderson is having a career year due to his HR and SB totals, and it seems obvious that the Macafeys like him better than Rios. I'm not too high on Granderson due to his inability to hit for high average throughout most of his career, but I think he can be a solid source for HR as he gets older. I don't think we can count on him being a 20/20 guy next year, but he should chip in enough steals to make him a top-20 outfielder. Whether or not he will be an upgrade over Rios in years to come is the main question, as the Macafeys are clearly betting that he will.

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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Trade Review - Hunter Pence/Zack Greinke for Joey Votto

Last Sunday was the trade deadline in our league, and we had quite a bit of activity as teams tried to either improve for the playoffs or for next year. Three trades happened last week, and I hope to get to all of them by tomorrow night.


In the first trade before the deadline, the Butt Admirals traded Joey Votto to my team, Adrian's Revenge, for Zack Greinke and Hunter Pence. As presently situated, I didn't believe my team was strong enough to contend in the playoffs if I made them, so I made the decision to try and improve my keepers for next year by trading away some players that weren't in my plans for future domination. I felt that Joey Votto would be a good solid hitter to build around; at the age of 26, he'll be entering his prime heading into next season. Votto has consistently hit well, with a batting average well over .300 every month except for August, and he's had a slugging percentage of .500 or more during those same months. I think Votto will be a solid power producer, capable of hitting 30 HR with a great batting average, and I look forward to having him on my team for years to come.

Kimball strengthens his pitching staff heading into the postseason, which will allow him a better chance of competing against teams such as The $5 Footlongs and Orc Mischief. Zack Greinke has been a top-ten pitcher this year, and even though his team struggles to get him Wins, he has the talent to be a top-five pitcher next year. I don't like keeping pitchers because of the risk of injury; I wish I hadn't kept Ervin Santana this year, and I'm sure a lot of people wish they hadn't trusted Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb as keepers. You never know what can happen to a pitcher, and I prefer to roll the dice on B-and-C-list pitchers in the draft.

I saw Hunter Pence as a fringe-type keeper, and he might be able to make Kimball's keeper list for next year. Pence is a very streaky player, and that frustates me in a head-to-head league. He would have a terrific month, and then struggle for a month. He definitely has power and can provide some steals, though I doubt his ability to continue to steal since he gets caught almost as often as he succeeds, and he could be a very strong outfielder if he can put everything together from month to month.

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